Michigan Full Analysis

10/10

Viability Score

10/10

Urgency Score

9/10

Infrastructure

117

DNC Delegates

House / Assembly

52

Dem

58

GOP

GOP ControlMajority: 56 seats

Senate

20

Dem

18

GOP

Dem ControlMajority: 20 seats

Path to Power

Seats from Majority

+4

Seats from Trifecta

+4

Strategic Context

Lost historic trifecta in 2024 by razor-thin margins. Right-to-work repeal (2023) energized labor. Whitmer term-limited 2026 - critical year.

Path to Victory

Mobilize UAW + Detroit turnout. Target HD-44 (79 votes!), HD-27, HD-31. Tie to economic populism and reproductive rights.

Key Target Districts

HD-44

-79 votes

CRITICAL - 79 vote loss

Closest race in state, recount territory

HD-27

-3.2%

High priority flip

Suburban swing district

HD-31

-4.1%

Winnable with turnout

Labor-friendly district

HD-82

-5%

Trending Dem

College town area

HD-56

-3.8%

Open seat opportunity

2026 open seat expected

Organizing Infrastructure

Labor Unions

  • UAW (300K members)
  • SEIU
  • AFT Michigan
  • Teamsters

Grassroots Orgs

  • Michigan United
  • We The People Michigan
  • Progress Michigan

Key Organizations

  • UAW
  • Detroit Action
  • Michigan Liberation

DSA Presence

Active DSA Chapter

Risk Factors

  • Trump enthusiasm in rural areas
  • Whitmer not on ballot 2026
  • Auto industry volatility