Arizona Full Analysis

8/10

Viability Score

8/10

Urgency Score

8/10

Infrastructure

72

DNC Delegates

House / Assembly

27

Dem

33

GOP

GOP ControlMajority: 31 seats

Senate

13

Dem

17

GOP

GOP ControlMajority: 16 seats

Path to Power

Seats from Majority

+4

Seats from Trifecta

+7

Strategic Context

7 seats from trifecta. LUCHA knocked 1M doors. Gallego Senate win shows coalition strength. Abortion rights ballot measure energized base.

Path to Victory

LUCHA door-knocking in Maricopa. Target LD-2 and LD-4 Senate. Abortion + democracy messaging.

Key Target Districts

LD-2

-1.2%

Senate flip target

Maricopa competitive

LD-4

-2.5%

House flip pair

East Valley

LD-9

-3.1%

Trending Dem

Tempe area

LD-13

-2.8%

Expansion target

Tucson suburbs

Organizing Infrastructure

Labor Unions

  • UNITE HERE Local 11
  • Arizona Education Association
  • SEIU AZ

Grassroots Orgs

  • LUCHA (Living United for Change in Arizona)
  • Mi Familia Vota
  • Chispa AZ

Key Organizations

  • LUCHA
  • Mi Familia Vota
  • AZ Wins

DSA Presence

No DSA Chapter

Risk Factors

  • Border politics
  • Phoenix growth changing demographics
  • Maricopa County sheriff races